Risk-Off Futures Plan Before Michigan Sentiment
NQ and ES are under pressure before the open while crude breaks lower and VIX rises. Use reclaim-or-reject levels, not a blind dip-buy.
Data snapshot: Yahoo Finance chart API around 06:51 ET; ForexFactory current-week calendar for catalysts. This is a risk-off open unless buyers quickly reclaim overnight breakdown levels. NQ and ES are trading below Thursday's lows, CL is breaking lower, GC is firming off a sharp overnight washout, and VIX is back near 20.
Overnight / Pre-Market in 8 Lines
- NQ: 29,367, below Thursday's 29,296-30,264 range after an overnight low at 29,160.
- ES: 7,387, also below Thursday's 7,391 low; 7,435 is the first reclaim line.
- CL: 69.50 after a hard break from the 74.82 prior close; 68.90/69.00 is the support test.
- GC: 4,065.7, recovering from 3,998.1 and now slightly above Thursday's 4,060 high.
- DXY: 101.21, firmer versus the 101.02 prior close; dollar strength is a headwind for gold and equities.
- US10Y: last Yahoo snapshot 4.392% from Thursday; no fresh 07:00 ET print in that feed.
- VIX: 20.19 versus 17.28 prior close, confirming the volatility impulse.
- Internal context: the site performance report still favors practical trading pages, so today's links point readers toward deep learning in algorithmic trading and the agentic trading evidence ledger.
Today's Catalysts (ET)
- 08:30: Goods Trade Balance, Prelim Wholesale Inventories.
- 10:00: Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations.
- 11:30: Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speaks.
Trade Plans
NQ
- Bias: Bearish below 29,775; rally attempts need proof.
- Key levels: 29,160 / 29,296 / 29,775 / 30,264 / 30,654.
- 08:00-16:00: If NQ reclaims 29,296 and holds above VWAP, then squeeze risk opens toward 29,775. If 29,296 rejects, then favor continuation into 29,160 and possible 29,000.
- 20:00-23:00: Continuation is favored if price closes below 29,296; mean reversion only improves above 29,775.
- Invalidation: Sustained acceptance above 29,775 flips the day from breakdown to repair.
ES
- Bias: Bearish while below 7,435.
- Key levels: 7,357 / 7,391 / 7,435 / 7,496 / 7,541.
- 08:00-16:00: If ES fails at 7,391/7,435, then sellers can press 7,357 and 7,325. If it accepts above 7,435, then target a repair move toward 7,496.
- 20:00-23:00: Continuation below 7,391; mean reversion above 7,435 if VIX cools.
- Invalidation: Acceptance above 7,496 negates the bearish tape.
CL
- Bias: Bearish but extended; do not chase into 68.90 without confirmation.
- Key levels: 68.90 / 69.50 / 71.86 / 72.50 / 74.82.
- 08:00-16:00: If CL loses 68.90, then downside continuation can target 68.00. If it reclaims 69.50 and holds, then short-covering can reach 71.86.
- 20:00-23:00: Mean reversion is more likely after the large break unless 68.90 fails again.
- Invalidation: Acceptance back above 72.50 ends the immediate breakdown bias.
GC
- Bias: Constructive above 4,060, but dollar strength makes the long fragile.
- Key levels: 3,998 / 4,060 / 4,070 / 4,100 / 4,182.
- 08:00-16:00: If GC holds 4,060/4,070, then buyers can probe 4,100. If 4,060 fails, then expect a retest of 3,998.
- 20:00-23:00: Continuation higher needs 4,070 support; below that, mean reversion toward 4,000 is favored.
- Invalidation: A clean loss of 3,998 would turn the recovery into a failed bounce.
Execution Checklist
- Size down before 10:00 ET Michigan sentiment if already in profit.
- For index futures, treat the first reclaim of Thursday's low as a test, not proof.
- Watch VIX near 20: a drop back below 19 supports repair; a hold above 20 supports trend-down attempts.
- In CL, wait for a 68.90 break-and-hold or a 69.50 reclaim; the middle is poor location.
- Review broader systematic context in the algorithmic trading YouTube channel guide after the session, not during execution.